Key Economic Statistics
The current real estate/economic picture in Denver remains positive for the individual home seller in the lower price ranges, but has become very stressful for buyers, especially in the prices ranges under $350,000. Sellers are often receiving multiple offers, and many properties are receiving bids in excess of asking price, often in the first few days. There is growing confidence that the Denver area is in the beginning phase of a slow and long recovery. Resale inventory remains markedly lower than previous years, while closed sales are increasing monthly over 2011. With the first 4 months of 2012 showing continuing improvement over last year, interest rates remaining at historic lows, and the employment picture improving, the housing picture in Denver looks brighter than any time in the past 5 years. While it is reasonable to expect that average and median prices will continue to rise through the remainder of 2012, the pace will begin to slow. Home builders will continue their cautious increase in starts, with building permits continuing ahead of last year through. A quick review of the Band Charts seen in The Berkshire Groups Newsletter show that most of the Denver area market is trending toward a Sellers market. Some neighborhoods are seeing well marketed and well priced houses receiving multiple offers in a short amount of time. But, the overall market is spotty. The high end remains slow, and most likely will remain so during 2012. Buyers looking in the under $250,000 price range will continue to face stiff competition from investors looking to buy and hold for rental income. In short, the Metro Denver housing market continues 2012 stronger than in 2011, but complete recovery is still in the distance, with noticeable appreciation in the $400,000 price ranges probably not occurring until 2013.
New Home Permits (Metro Denver):
New Home Permits issued through April 2012: 1,49
New Home Permits issued through April 2011: 960
This is a 55% increase at the end of April YTD over 2011.
(NOTE:Metro Denver multifamily permits issued through April increased by 174% over March YTD 2011.)
Denver Area Residential Resale Statistics:
Average Single Family Home Sales Statistics for May, 2012 compared to May, 2011:
Year Prices % of Change Days on Market Inventory
2012 $307,896 +10.45% 78 8,705
2011 $272,443 108 13,958
Average Condo Sales Statistics for May, 2012 compared to May, 2011:
Year Prices % of Change Days on Market Inventory
2012 $179,253 12.00% 81 1,886
2011 $160,051 113 3,930
Total Combined Homes placed under Contract in May, 2012 = 5,908 vs. 4,777 for May, 2011
Total Combined Closed Homes in May 2012 = 4,625 vs. 3,732 for May, 2011
Note: The average and median prices are now trending up, the volume of sales is up, and the available inventory remains historically low, signifying considerable improvement in the Metro Denver market.
- Source: Metrolist, Inc.
Employment Statistics for the Denver-Aurora MSA for May, 2012:
Year Labor Force Employed Unemployed Rate
2012 1,408,979 1,294,745 113,834 8.1%
2011 1,395,970 1,279,989 115,981 8.3%
Consider that as the economy improves, more people will return to the job market, so the number of unemployed may actually increase. In March, the State of Colorado unemployment was 7.8%.
- Source: Colorado Department of Labor
Average National Mortgage Rates as of June 14, 2012
30 Year 15 Year 5/1 ARM 1 Year ARM
3.71% 2.98% 2.80% 2.78%
Mortgage interest rates decline slightly since May, 2012.
The mortgage market continues to offer extremely low rates for qualified buyers.
All rates include a 0.6 % to 0.8% discount point. Rates quoted by any lender may not reflect momentary changes. Rates in the Denver area may be slightly higher or lower with a given lender at a given time. All rates noted in this report apply to the best qualified borrowers.
- Source: Freddie Mac National Website
*The Pulse is a review of key economic statistics that affect the Metropolitan Denver Area real estate market. The Pulse is offered monthly as part of The Berkshire Group’s Monthly Update, and is current based on the information offered by the credited sources. The database is the 7 county Metropolitan Denver SMSA:
Tagged: Denver economic statistics, Denver housing economy, Denver real estate, Denver real estate market, economic statistics, employment
